Gone to the Birds

In the throes of a bad cold/flu season for me (I’ve been sick three times this winter, possibly a new record), I was reminded today of the media attention a couple of years ago that surrounded the avian bird flu, also known as H5N1, when it promised to be the new flu pandemic of the 21st century. I remember when it first started becoming a concern I was working as a consultant for a large insurance company, and there were a number of policies and procedures that were being adopted throughout the organization to counter the possible threat. From new signs in the bathroom that encouraged employees to thoroughly wash their hands to detailed plans on how the organization would function if it suddenly lost half of its workforce to the illness, it was clearly a priority for the business continuity plan of the company.

I do wonder sometimes if it was so apparent to me because I happened to know the project manager who was leading the effort, or if I picked up the various cues on my own. I still remember that the only way to know that you’ve thoroughly cleaned your hands is to recite the alphabet as you’re doing it, but as I get further away from that point in my life I realize that I only get to about “N” before I stop. The fact is, the bird flu hasn’t yet become the pandemic some scientists have promised, and as we often do in the American media, since there’s no pending disaster, and we’re over what “could” happen, we’ve sort of moved on.

That sentiment was evident to me today as I perused Boston.com today and found an article entitled, “Bird flu continues march 4 years later.” The article opens stating that “[f]ears of a global bird flu pandemic that once dominated headlines have largely vanished in the West…” confirming that I was not the only one who felt that it just wasn’t a big deal anymore. According to the article, even some scientists are considering the possibility that they overemphasized the impact the disease could make when it was first identified as a threat. Though devistating to bird populations (hundreds of millions in more than 60 countries have died or been slaughtered because of the disease), there are few regions of the world where the virus has altered itself enough to become a widespread threat, and a relatively small group of people — approximately 220 — have died from those variations of those disease. Still, some recent trends in the article are reason for renewed concern:

  • This week marked the 100th death in Indonesia since the virus was first reported in humans there in 2005.
  • India is battling its worst-ever poultry outbreak. No human cases have been reported, but experts are scrambling to keep the disease from reaching crowded Calcutta and its 14 million people.
  • Pakistan and Myanmar both reported their first human infections in December. That brings to 14 the number of countries where the virus has jumped from poultry to people.(1)

Though the World Health Organization (WHO) contends that the threat has not lessened, it’s become clear to them that the public has grown weary of continuing threats without any evidence of outbreak. In spite of public sentiment, they seem to remain vigilant in their mission to keep the public informed and urge continued efforts to prepare for the omnipresent possibility of an outburst of the virus.

What I believe is scariest about this disease is its aggressive nature among birds and the mortality rate for those it infects. A small change in the genetic code could result in the kind of pandemic for humans that has devastated bird populations in many areas of the world. But to what end should we be receiving warnings? To what end should we prepare for the “imminent” threat? This reminds me very much of the threat of terrorism — when it became apparent in 2001 that we were vulnerable, we were concerned about the level of security at airports, we sought information on how to better prepare ourselves for threats, and even adopted a new government department for homeland security. But what about now? Does anybody pay attention to our current terrorism threat? How often will the sentiment of feeling safer subdue our frustration for long lines at the airport? How much longer will the government be allowed to go on securing our borders through our activities overseas? Even after a terrible event such as the attack of September 11, 2001, who could argue that after getting over the initial threat we continue with life as usual?

Then again, perhaps this is different. Most people had no idea that terrorism was a threat before 2001, and therefore there was no way we, as individuals, could defend ourselves against it effectively. With an evolved avian flu, we can’t argue that we didn’t know the threat, because the WHO has been telling us about the possibility of the threat for years, and have been giving us the best advice it can in terms of prevention in lieu of an actual vaccine. Do we have any excuse for not being prepared if the knowledge has been offered freely and preemptively?

Perhaps its time I practiced my alphabet…and washed my hands.

(1) See “Bird flu continues march 4 years later,” Margie Mason, AP Medical Writer, Boston.com, January 31, 2008.